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Boston, bumping his ERA to 3.03 on the season. Gerrit Cole allowed six earned runs in just four innings vs. : Does anyone want to win this thing? This isn't meant to besmirch any of the contenders out there, but after Kevin Gausman got hit around by the Phillies to the tune of seven runs (five earned) on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings, our betting favorite didn't do any better in what could have been a nail in the race's coffin. Kevin Gausman's odds are the longest they've been in some time and he's still the AL leader in WAR and strikeout rate. Gerrit Cole is still the favorite, but he's vulnerable and the value in this market can be found in the field. He has allowed seven runs in his last 11 2/3 innings, though, helping open the door for Castillo in the odds.

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The 25-year-old hasn't walked more than two batters in any outing this season and hasn't issued a single free pass in four straight starts. He has finished five frames every single time. You can make an argument for his teammate George Kirby, as well. He consistently pitches deep in games, finishing at least seven innings nine times and in three consecutive outings. The pitching staff cannot be discounted, though, especially ace Luis Castillo, who is 11-7 with a 3.01 ERA over his 27 starts. : The Seattle Mariners are surging in the standings in large part due to reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. He's not striking batters out at his highest clip, but he's finding success with great consistency and has maintained an ERA below 3.00. Cole is 12-4 on a Yankees team that has largely struggled to win and he leads the AL in innings with 174. Gerrit Cole is still the clubhouse leader by a wide margin and while the race is probably tighter than that disparity in odds suggests, it's easy to see why he's there. Sonny Gray, the AL leader in ERA at 2.92, has seen his odds shorten a bit, but the issue with him might be the 7-6 win-loss record. : There is still plenty of time for Blue Jays ace - and AL WAR leader - Kevin Gausman to make up ground on the odds board and grabbing him at longer than 10/1 is the best value on him in ages. Still, 60/1 makes Gausman at least somewhat tempting. But that issue is likely moot since Cole, barring a couple of unprecedented implosions in the season's final few weeks, is walking away with his first Cy Young trophy. Castillo's advantage in the ERA department (3.08 to Gausman's 3.28) is hardly reason to expect this wide a disparity. It's puzzling to see Luis Castillo fetching shorter odds, not because he's a bad pitcher but because Gausman has been demonstrably superior nearly across the board. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman limited the Kansas City Royals to one run on two hits over eight innings while he struck out 10. : Gerrit Cole dominated the Milwaukee Brewers in his last start, allowing just three hits while striking out nine over seven shutout frames, lowering his ERA to an AL-best 2.79 in the process. Granted, Cole has pitched nearly 20 more innings than Gray, so that could be part of it, too.

If Cole wins, it could come down to W-L record, which is more a judgment for the team and not the pitcher in those instances. The New York Yankees are almost completely cooked. There's an even bigger gap when it comes to Gausman, who can be had at 250/1 at FanDuel compared to 100/1 or as short as 60/1 at other books.Īlso, Gray will pitch in the postseason since the Minnesota Twins are a near certainty to win the AL Central.

Gray is currently available at DraftKings at 50/1 compared to 25/1 elsewhere.

If, for example, you think writers will favor Sonny Gray for leading AL pitchers in WAR or Kevin Gausman for being the best strikeout artist in the junior circuit, you can find better prices if you don't just settle for one book. : While Gerrit Cole continues to pull away as the frontrunner, there is some value to be had behind him that further showcases the benefit of shopping around.